Well, I'm back to square one. - The new starter doesn't rattle when you shake it like the old one did, but there' still no life when I turn the key.
I've got 12.6V between the positive terminal and the engine. - It makes no difference if I connect a jumper lead between the battery and the engine.
I've got 12.3V between the negative terminal and the starter motor. - I haven't tried getting a jumper cable on that.
Of the two of them, it's more likely that the lead to the starter is shot, but I'd expect to see more of a voltage drop than 0.3V... I guess that's without load though.
I'll go through the fuses again tomorrow, but I'm now wondering if it's (a) the ignition barrel despite it appearing to do something when I turn the key (b) the alarm/immobiliser playing-up. - It usually lets the starter turn, but won't fire the ignition if it's immobilised; I'm wondering if the battery in the alarm is gone and it's acting like a capacitor so that the current doesn't flow to the starter.
Suffice to say I'm feeling incompetent now.